At the same time, the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan face serious challenges in ensuring their own food security. This is due both to socioeconomic factors (high population growth, underdeveloped industry, and a shortage of agricultural land) and climate change (rising average annual temperatures, declining river runoff due to the rapid melting of glaciers, and land degradation and desertification).
Of all the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan, only Kazakhstan is fully self-sufficient in staple foods, particularly grain crops, cereal crops for groats, oilseed crops, and pulses, and has the potential to increase their production.
According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA/United Nations Population Division) and the World Bank (World Bank Open Data), over the past ten years (2016–2026), the countries of Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan) and Afghanistan have recorded one of the highest rates of population growth in the world outside Africa. In total, the population of this macroregion increased by more than 24 million. It is worth noting that the region is one of the youngest in the world. The median age is 17.4 years in Afghanistan and about 22 years in Tajikistan; this means that a vast share of the population has yet to reach peak childbearing age, ensuring further growth.
Consolidated Demographic Data for the Countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan over 10 Years
Data from the United Nations (UN DESA /United Nations Population Division) were used.
Wheat is the foundation of food security and the principal strategic commodity in the countries of Central Asia and Afghanistan. The traditional diets of the region’s countries, shaped by national cuisines and the availability of inexpensive plant protein, feature bread as a major part of the diet; the region has one of the world’s highest levels of per capita wheat consumption, averaging 143–178 kg per person per year, compared with a global average of just 78 kg.
Given the rapid population growth (+24.3 million people over 10 years), the pressure on the region’s grain balance is immense.
Wheat Consumption Volumes by Country in Central Asia and Afghanistan
Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO UN) were used.
Thus, with the exception of Kazakhstan, every country in the region is critically dependent on wheat imports to ensure its own food security. Kazakhstan is the principal supplier of high-quality wheat and flour to the region’s countries.
In the 2025–2026 MY, wheat exports to countries in the region increased substantially. Kazakhstan’s wheat exports to Central Asia and Afghanistan accounted for 88.5% of the country’s total wheat export volume.
The countries of the region also actively import flour from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is one of the world’s leading wheat-flour exporters and has ranked 2nd globally after Turkey for 15 years. Central Asia and Afghanistan account for 98% of Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports.
It should also be noted that a new industry has emerged in Kazakhstan over the past three years: the production of wheat-barley feed mix. Its principal ingredients are 80% wheat and 20% barley. Wheat-barley feed mix serves as a base for preparing feed for livestock, poultry, and aquaculture. New plants are being actively built and old mills refurbished in Kazakhstan to produce wheat-barley feed mix, including with the participation of Chinese investors. Over three marketing years, production and exports of wheat-barley feed mix increased almost 25-fold! 99% of output is exported to China.
Thus, total exports of wheat, wheat flour, and wheat-barley feed mix in wheat equivalent have risen to record levels and, according to estimates by the Association of Legal Entities ‘Grain Union of Kazakhstan’, will reach 15 million tonnes in the 2025/26 MY (September–August)! Central Asia and Afghanistan will account for more than 70% of combined exports of wheat, wheat flour, and wheat-barley feed mix in wheat equivalent!
The combined share of processed-product exports in wheat equivalent will amount to 39% of total wheat exports. No other leading wheat exporter in the world has achieved such results!
Prospects for the Development of Deep Grain Processing
As President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly noted, the further development of grain processing should focus on producing advanced-processing products with high value added. This is precisely the area that offers strong prospects for domestic and foreign investors. Government investor-support programs have been established for project implementation, including partial reimbursement of construction capital costs (up to 50% of the total), raw-material purchase subsidies, concessional lending for raw-material purchases, transport subsidies for product exports, tax relief and tax incentives for up to ten years, assistance in developing infrastructure (roads, utilities, access roads and sidings), in-kind grants (free allocation of land for construction and infrastructure), and fixed tax rates and obligations. A number of projects are already being implemented in Kazakhstan:
In Zhambyl region, the Chinese company Fufeng Group Limited is implementing a project to build a deep maize processing plant producing amino acids, monosodium glutamate, glucose syrup, and xanthan gum for the domestic food industry and export;
In Astana, the Turkish company Tiryaki Agro, together with Hassad Food (Qatar), is building a deep grain processing plant producing starch, dry gluten, and glucose-fructose syrups for export to the global market;
In Akmola region, the Chinese investor Dalian Hesheng Holdings Group Co., Ltd. is building a large-scale wheat biofermentation plant producing glutamic acid, dry gluten, glucose syrup, amino acids, and bioplastic.
Several other projects are still under negotiation.
In addition, the BioOperations plant operates in North Kazakhstan region, producing bioethanol from wheat—an environmentally friendly, high-octane gasoline additive—as well as dry wheat gluten, native wheat starch, high-protein animal feed, and liquefied carbon dioxide. The Zharkent Starch and Syrup Plant also operates in Almaty region.
With a strong raw-material base comprising various grain crops (wheat, maize, and barley), the implementation of such deep grain processing projects in Kazakhstan will raise the processing industry to a new technological level while enabling the country’s agricultural producers to secure fair grain prices and sustainable development.
