–Kazakhstan has set a target of exporting approximately $1.5 billion worth of oil and fat products in 2028, about 60% above the current level. What is driving such rapid growth?
– This growth is being driven by a large-scale transformation of the industry—a shift from exporting agricultural raw materials to processing them domestically and selling finished value-added products.
The country’s total oilseed processing capacity currently exceeds 5.2 million tonnes per year. With new investment projects coming onstream, this figure will increase in the coming years. At the same time, one of the key objectives that we, as the industry association, are consistently pursuing is to expand the production of higher-value processed products. Vegetable-oil refining capacity, for example, is expected to rise to 2.1 times its current level between 2026 and 2028, to more than 1 million tonnes per year. This will make it possible to raise production of packaged refined sunflower oil to approximately 2.4 times its current level and expand supplies of finished products to both domestic and foreign markets. The next stage is to develop the production of vegetable fats and margarine products, which will reduce imports and open up new export markets.
We are already seeing the results of this strategy. In just four years, the industry’s foreign-currency earnings increased fourfold—from $240 million to $963 million. In 2025, the oil and fat industry accounted for 27% of Kazakhstan’s exports of products made from agricultural raw materials. NOPA estimates that the industry’s export earnings will exceed $1.2 billion as early as 2026.
The target of $1.5 billion by 2028 is therefore entirely achievable. Today, the oil and fat industry clearly demonstrates how transitioning from raw-material exports to processing can increase foreign-currency inflows, develop non-resource exports, and contribute to Kazakhstan’s economic diversification.
– How is Kazakhstan currently positioned in the global market for oil and fat products, and where does it aim to rank in the coming years?
– In 2025, Kazakhstan ranked sixth worldwide in sunflower oil exports and became the second-largest supplier of sunflower oil to China. In 2024–2025, Kazakhstan also ranked among the TOP-5 suppliers of rapeseed oil to the Chinese market.
Kazakhstan has also established a strong position in high-protein feed. It has become one of the TOP-3 suppliers of sunflower meal to the European Union and China and, through the consistent development of its processing industry, effectively meets the demand for these products across Central Asia.
Its position in neighboring countries has strengthened particularly markedly. Kazakhstan has become the leading supplier of vegetable oils to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. In Uzbekistan, the share of Kazakhstan’s products increased from 13% in 2017 to 65% in 2024 and more than 90% in 2025. In Tajikistan, it rose from 15% to 74% and then to more than 90%, respectively.
Kazakhstan has therefore already established a sustainable position across several key export destinations—China, the European Union, and Central Asia. The next strategic goal is to become one of the world’s TOP-3 exporters of sunflower oil and increase annual foreign-currency earnings from oil and fat product exports to $2 billion.
– Kazakhstan is steadily strengthening its position in the global market by shifting from raw-material exports to supplies of value-added products. What are the country’s competitive advantages in oilseed processing?
– Kazakhstan’s competitive advantages stem from four key factors: its own raw-material base, geographical location, developing export logistics, and diversified sales markets.
First and foremost, the industry is underpinned by its own raw-material base. Kazakhstan has the largest agricultural land area in Central Asia and favorable conditions for growing high-margin oilseed crops. The development of processing has already become one of the main incentives for expanding their production. The trend in sunflower cultivation is particularly striking: since 2021, the sown area has grown to 2.3 times its 2021 level, from 958,000 hectares to a record 2.2 million hectares in 2026. The potential for further expansion exceeds 4 million hectares.
Crop diversification enables farmers to reduce their dependence on wheat and mitigate the risks of price volatility. The main incentive is steady demand from domestic oilseed processing plants, which currently substantially exceeds the raw-material supply. Processors also directly finance agricultural producers’ spring fieldwork and purchases of seeds, fertilizers, and crop-protection products. In 2025 alone, more than 43 billion tenge was allocated for these purposes. This is creating an integrated production chain—from growing oilseed crops to producing and exporting finished products.
The second advantage is geographical location. Kazakhstan lies between the major markets of China, Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East and is developing several export corridors simultaneously, including the China–Europe route and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.
Specialized export logistics are also being developed systematically. Since February 2024, NOPA and NC KTZ JSC have been implementing a mechanism for coordinating vegetable-oil shipments through Dostyk–Alashankou. As a result, fulfillment of shipment plans to China exceeded 90%, compared with less than 40% in 2023, while exports of oil and fat products to China increased more than 3.5-fold over the past three seasons.
In 2026, pilot freight-train shipments of pelletized sunflower meal to China began, while Kazakhstan’s vegetable oil was shipped by sea through the Port of Aktau for the first time, opening up additional opportunities to enter regional markets.
Another advantage is the broad geographical reach of exports. Kazakhstan’s oil and fat products are currently supplied to more than twenty countries, including China and countries in Central Asia, the European Union, and the Middle East. This reduces dependence on individual markets and the risks of price dumping.
The National Oilseed Processors Association of Kazakhstan (NOPA) is systematically working to increase recognition of Kazakhstan’s oil and fat products abroad: the industry is represented at major international exhibitions and conferences, is developing direct contacts with foreign importers, and is opening new sales channels.
Thus, Kazakhstan’s main competitive advantage is the development of a fully integrated export-oriented chain: domestically produced raw materials → domestic processing → efficient logistics → diversified sales markets. This model makes it possible to move away from exporting agricultural raw materials and increase shipments of higher value-added products.
– At which stages of the value chain do you see the greatest opportunities for international investors?
– Today, the industry’s investment potential is shifting toward the construction of logistics infrastructure for the storage and transshipment of oil and fat products, as well as the development of deep processing.
Export logistics for oils and high-protein feed is a strategically important area for attracting investment. Demand for Kazakhstan’s oil and fat products is growing in Europe, China, and Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, investment in infrastructure and logistics hubs on the border with China and at ports on the Caspian Sea is a vital link connecting our growing production volumes with major sales markets.
The second area is the production of high value-added products: specialty fats, margarines, confectionery and culinary fats, and food ingredients. Here, we are interested not only in capital but also in the transfer of modern technologies and international expertise.
Several major Kazakhstani enterprises are already planning such projects, creating a favorable opportunity for international investors.
– Can oilseed processing become a model for a broader strategy to diversify Kazakhstan’s exports?
– Absolutely. The experience of the oil and fat industry can serve as a successful model for export diversification in other sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy as well.
This model is based on a systematic approach: identifying promising foreign markets and the competitive advantages of domestically produced goods, assessing the raw-material base and the potential of individual regions, and providing the necessary logistics infrastructure. Equally important is continuous cooperation between business and government to remove trade and infrastructure barriers and create conditions for the development of processing and exports.
The key principle is to export not raw materials but higher value-added products. The development of processing creates permanent jobs, increases foreign-currency earnings, strengthens food security, and contributes to price stability in domestic and regional markets.
The experience of the oil and fat industry already demonstrates that Kazakhstan is capable not only of supplying its domestic market but also of competing successfully in the world’s largest markets. This approach can serve as the foundation for further diversification of Kazakhstan’s non-resource exports.
